Super Bowl XLIV Prediction

It's almost time for Super Bowl XLIV. The game is on Sunday and so it's time for my pick. This postseason I've done really well with picking as I've gone 7-3. I'm assured a winning record for the playoffs but it'd be nice to pick the winner of the Super Bowl as well. Last decade (in case you were wondering, from Super Bowl 34 to 43) I went 5-5 in picking the winner of the Super Bowl. We'll see how the new decade shapes up.

We get a great matchup in the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. In the regular season, I picked this as the Super Bowl matchup, though after Week 16 I thought otherwise (more on that later). We get two high powered offenses, two big name quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees) and what should be one exciting show.

In breaking down the matchup, it seems a lot of people are favoring the Colts because of Peyton Manning and rightfully so. He is arguably one of the best quarterbacks ever. He is the franchise player for the Colts for over a decade. This team rides on his arm. On the other side, you have Drew Brees, who wasn't a slouch at all at QB. He revived the Saints franchise and has been both a leader on and off the field. As much as what Peyton means to the Colts, Drew means as much as the heart and soul of the Saints.

One of the things I think that has gotten overlooked and what I think will play a factor is the running game. As much as it's been a pass happy league the last few years, running the ball is important (and I don't count bubble screen passes as runs) and I think will play a role in this game. When I look at the two teams' running games, Indy has a solid running game in Joseph Addai and the rookie Donald Brown. But, the edge goes to the Saints in that their running back duo (Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush) has been a little more consistent this season and has the ability to break a run for a big gain.

Another key will be special teams. The Colts have the oldest player to start a Super Bowl in K Matt Stover. He's reliable but won't be able to kick long field goals. That will factor in. The Saints K Garrett Hartley is young, has the leg but has missed some key field goals (though he did hit the game winner in OT in the NFC Championship game). Return game edge goes to the Saints (Reggie Bush/Courtney Roby vs Chad Simpson/T.J. Rushing).

Obviously a key story is Dwight Freeney and his injury. I think regardless of whether he plays or not, he will not be 100% and that will be a factor. He is known for his speed and with his ankle not 100% he won't have the full speed he needs to disrupt things. That in turn will upset the balance of the rest of the defense.

Important stat: In the regular season, the Saints had a +11 giveaway/takeaway while the Colts had a +2.

It has been a tough decision to figure out who to root for and who will win. For me, there are three factors in which I went with the decision I did. First, the Colts decision to basically quit on the last two games of the regular season. I thought then it was wrong and still do. I wouldn't want to reward them with a Super Bowl for doing something like that and deep down I think they won't win and that will be rectified. Two, though many people are picking the Colts, if you're not a Colts or Saints fan, the rooting interest might be steered more towards the Saints. Three, in a Madden simulation of the game earlier this week, the Saints won that game. That simulation has predicted the winner of the Super Bowl 5 out the last 6 years.

As much as I love Peyton (being a UT guy), I think the choice for me is clear....

Who Dat rolls to the victory

New Orleans 38 Indianapolis 30

MVP: Drew Brees