Prediction on the BCS National Championship Game

Tonight is the BCS National Championship Game. Not to be confused with the "other" BCS game which included two undefeated teams which I dubbed the "other National Championship game" between TCU and Boise State which was played on Monday. This one is between #1 Alabama and #2 Texas.

Anyone that knows me knows that I can't stand the BCS system and that there should be a playoff. But be that as it may, this is what we're stuck with for now.

In this game, we've got two teams which personally I either don't care about or don't like. Which means on the surface, I don't have a real rooting interest in this game. I'm not going to root for Alabama, simply because I don't like Bama. They're a rival to Tennessee. I don't care if they're in the same conference. They're a rival. Same goes for Florida. There's no scenerio where I would root for Florida. Any other SEC team I'm fine with but not those two.

On the other hand, I don't really care about Texas either. At one time, I didn't like Texas because of how they treated their one time starting QB Major Applewhite by benching him for Chris Simms but time has smoothed it out to where now I'm indifferent to them.

So in predicting this game I went with both sides, both sides being stats and gut feeling. The stats come down to this. The SEC is 5-0 in BCS National Championship games while the Big 12 is 2-4 in BCS National Championship games. Those lend themselves to Alabama. However, Alabama is winless in BCS games (0-2) including losing last year to Utah. Texas however is undefeated in BCS games (3-0) including winning the National Championsip game back in 2006. Also, the #2 team has won the last 4 matchups and 6 out of the last 7.

So there's the stats, here's the gut feeling. When I first heard the matchup, I immediately thought about the 2006 Rose Bowl game. There are several similarities between this year's game and that one. Both are being played in Pasadena. Both feature Texas as an underdog against a team that everyone expects to win the game. Both feature the opposing QB who has been successful (Matt Leinart: Heisman winner, Greg McElroy undefeated). Both feature a highly touted running back with the opposing team (Reggie Bush/Mark Ingram).

After weighing the stats and my gut feeling, I came to this conclusion. It'll be a hard fought game but in the end I think Texas gets the win. 41-38 Longhorns. In the words of Yogi Berra "It's deja vu all over again..."